The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.”
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
A. 前提：we predict an increased demand for heating oil
B. 结论：we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil
1. most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating
2. last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures
3. climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years
4. many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth
New inhabitants, who have moved there, will not necessarily use the same source as the local residents. If some of them have been accustomed to electric heating, and they have not used oil for heating before, they probably would not choose oil.
And we do not know the detail number of the new residents, if there have 200,000 native residents, and the number of new inhabitants is just 500, thus the new inhabitants are relatively less and they will make little effect on oil consumption.
The cold weather is not the only factor, influencing the need for oil in the local, but a crucial factor. There is a combination of factors, such as the price of oil, the income of a family, the consumption of other sources for heating.
If the price of oil is increasing with the decreasing temperature, many families with finite incomes will limit their consumption of oil.
Although the oil is the traditional heating source, it cannot illustrate all the local residents only use it for heating. With the generalization of natural gas, part of the residents may also use natural gas.
Therefore, even if the weather is getting colder, it is not necessary to boost the total consumption of oil.
The local residents reserve heating oil by many ways, besides the retail.
The wholesale is a general way to purchase the oil, because the price is lower than the retail.
The firm has ignored/overlooked the market competition. There is not only Consolidated Industries, who selling home heating oil. Many other strong peer companies would offer more alluring condition and price to attract the residents to buy their oil.
So even if the residents buy oil, they would not necessarily choose Consolidated.