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GRE官方题库原题4

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

题目翻译

Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50%的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。

题目分析

1. 作者没有提供足够的证据证明减少出租的数量事故就会减少，人们可能会自己购买自行车。

2. 作者也没有提供任何临近岛屿的情况，可能和Balmer Island Gazette完全不同。

3. 作者还忽略了其它因素：比如，考虑其它能够减少事故的因素是否比限制租车数量更好;此外，Torseau去年事故的减少是否是因为限制出租的结果。

参考提纲

1. 绝对数字，人比从前增加了多少。即使人增多了事故未必增多。

2. 助力车和自行车减少了未必导致事故一定减少，汽车。即使减少也未必一定能减少50%，原来有多少事故。

3. 样本差异。T成功不说明B也成功。T可能助力车占主导，路况不好，人多城市小交通拥挤。

注意：上述内容均来源于网络。

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