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  The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito  vote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons cited are that during Montoya's four years in office the population has decreased while  unemployment has increased, whereas during Varro's term unemployment declined while the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification  and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.  First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the  unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that because Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example,  perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the  current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends,  and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that  Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro's own administration set the  stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencingunder Montoya.

  Secondly, job availability and the economic health of one's community are issues that affect people emotionally. The argument at hand might have been intentionally oversimplified for the specific purpose of angering citizens of San Perdito, and thereby  turning them against the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass relevant, complex  reasoning in favor of stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they  are also unfair to the parties involved.

  In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak  argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has  caused San Perdito's poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve  examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing  evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.

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