In Country X's last election, the Reform Party beat its main opponent, the Conservative Party, although pollsters, employing in-person interviews shortly before the vote, had projected a Conservative Party victory. Afterwards, the pollsters determined that, unlike Conservative Party supporters, Reform Party supporters were less likely to express their party preference during in- person interviews than they were during telephone interviews. Therefore, using only telephone interviews instead would likely result in more accurate projections for the next election.
Which of the following statements, if true, would most support the argument in the passage?
A. The number of voters in Country X's next election will be significantly larger than the number of voters in the last election.
B. The Conservative Party will win the next election.
C. For each person interviewed in telephone polls before the next election, pollsters will be able to reasonably determine the likelihood of that person voting.
D. People who expressed no party preference during the in-person interviews shortly before
Country X's last election did not outnumber the people who expressed a preference for the Conservative Party.
E. In the next election, pollsters will be able to conduct more in-person interviews than telephone interviews.
Situation Pollsters, using in-person interviews shortly before the last election in Country X, incorrectly predicted that the Conservative Party would win that election, whereas the Reform
Party won instead. The pollsters determined that Reform Party supporters, unlike Conservative Party supporters, are less likely to give their party preference in person than in telephone interviews.
Reasoning What additional information, if true, would most strengthen the support, in light of the given information, for the prediction that using only telephone interviews would result in more accurate projections in the next election in Country X? Even if in telephone interviews pollsters are more likely to get accurate information about which party a person interviewed supports, the pollsters’ projections may not be accurate if the pollsters are unable to determine whether that person is actually likely to vote. So, information indicating that pollsters will be able to determine the likelihood that a person will vote would strengthen support for the conclusion.
Correct. It would certainly be helpful if the pollsters were able to determine how likely the person they were interviewing would be to vote.